Impending Water Wars: Increasing Demand Poses Major Threat to Indus Water Treaty

By Jehangir Khattak

The landmark Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan is coming under increasing pressure because of Pakistan's increasing thirst for water and India's construction of new hydropower projects on the  rivers flowing into Pakistan, says a new report released by the Atlantic Council. 

Signed on September 19, 1960, the Treaty has served as a shining example of conflict resolution between the South Asian rivals for over 50 years. The Treaty allocated three western rivers (the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan, with some water apportioned to India, and offered India exclusive rights to the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas). India’s rights to develop hydropower schemes on the western rivers are articulated in the Treaty. The Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) is the largest infrastructural enterprise, accounting for US $300 billion of investment and contributing US $18 billion (over 21 percent) to Pakistan’s GDP during 2009–10.

The report has been authored by Shahid Ahmad, the chief scientist at the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC). He says the rising demand for water has put the Treaty under strain and it may be threatened in the next decade because it does not resolve the core issue of sharing water resources during dry periods (October to March)—a period where water flows are almost half those of wet periods (April to September). "This includes the total impact of storage from the flows of the Chenab into Pakistan, and the Wullar Barrage and Kishanganga Project on the Jhelum and Neelum rivers."

The report says Pakistan must seriously consider better ways to ensure adequate water supplies for its country, with better storage facilities within its borders. Storage from the Mangla and Tarbela dams provides the main source of water for the winter season when water is scarce. Although the Kalabagh Dam could not be constructed, consensus allowed for the construction of the Bhasha and Akhori dams, with the prospect of increasing the amount of available water supplies during dry seasons.

Pakistan has a poor resource governance. More than 90 percent of the country's water resources are used for agriculture, yet the country's farming sector is ravaged by water wastage. Flood irrigation is used much more than water-saving drip irrigation, while sugar and wheat -- some of the world's most water-intensive crops -- dominate Pakistan's agriculture mix.

The report recommends that the provinces should be allowed to market their unutilized share of water allocated to them under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. "Additional protocols to the Accord may be added that will allow each province to use their water entitlements as needed; any excess can then be auctioned to other provinces or private operators."

It also calls for investment in the proper infrastructure to deal with floods and similar natural disasters. It also recommends  redefinition of the Water Apportionment Accord’s entitlements in terms of the existing conditions, not only based on future conditions that depend on non-existent infrastructure. "The entitlements per province were originally based on the assumption that future storage needs would be met. Both the scenarios. with and without additional storage, have to be defined in the Accord while allocating water to the provinces."

The report, says the projected per capita water availability in the Indus-Pakistan will reduce to 761 cubic meters (m3) by 2025, which will classify it as a severely water-scarce sub-basin. However,

the Indus-India will have per capita water availability of more than 1,000 m3 even beyond 2050. "The potential for Pakistan to increase its water-storage capacity is evident. The per capita water storage capacity available in Pakistan is 144 m3 per person, slightly higher than that of Ethiopia, which has less water resources but comparable water storage. In another perspective, the Colorado River provides flows of up to 900 days, while storage from the Indus Basin in Pakistan is sufficient only for flows of 30 days.

This scary scenario could further complicate the security environment in one of the most militarized regions of the world. Little wonder Pakistan-India tensions will go beyond their precarious broder disputes, which makes the possibilities more dangerous. The two nations may or may not live without Kashmir or Siachin, but none can certainly live without water.

There is not much in Shahid Ahmad's report on the need, potential and urgency for building new water reservoirs and improving water infrastructure, especially protecting against the ravages of flood. Pakistan could delay if not minimize its impending water shortage by improving its water infrastructure and building new water reservoirs, especially small dams, enacting new laws at the federal and provincial levels to protect and develop the country's vast and under-utilized waterways. The clock is ticking for Pakistan and it needs to move fast on tapping and conserving its water resources before it is too late.