Another ‘unpopular’ American war

By Jehangir Khattak, August 20, 2009

President Barack Obama is passing through the first major test of his presidency. With dwindling approval ratings, Obama is finding it hard to sell his health care reform program to Congress and the Afghan war to the American public.

While the American public wishes to extend health insurance to every citizen through major reform in the country's health delivery system, special interest groups are actively promoting the status quo in the reform debate. The Democratic Party itself seems to be divided on the issue. Congress is to take up the reform program in the coming days, but members of Congress have continued an extensive outreach to their electorate on the issue. Most congressmen are holding town hall meetings to gauge voters' opinions about the proposed reform, expected to be the most sweeping in recent years. However, victims of unfair health insurance practices are giving elected representatives a hard time. Some town hall meetings, where health care was discussed, turned into tense exchanges of arguments between upset electorates and their representatives.

The United States spends 16 percent of its gross domestic product on health care and it is projected to reach a whopping 31 percent of its GDP in the next 25 years. Despite this massive expenditure on health care, more than 45 million Americans remain uninsured. Obviously, such a huge investment with such poor results would not be acceptable to any government anywhere in the world, especially in a country already in the middle of two wars and whose economy is in a recession. Thus, fixing the health care delivery system is as important for President Barack Obama as winning the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, much seems to be desired on both fronts. Progress on health care reform is possible through a bipartisan compromise, but a military standstill in Afghanistan, considered to be Obama's signature war, could have damaging consequences for the administration. Like health care reform, the handling of the Afghan war is emerging as another threat to Obama's leadership.

The very impression of Iraq being Bush's war and Afghanistan being Obama's may not go well with Obama's approval rating. Obama will not be alone in facing the negative consequences of such an impression. The Democratic Party could also sustain considerable political damage in the coming months particularly if the war in Afghanistan loses public support; there are signs that support is indeed waning.

Fifty-one percent of respondents to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released last month said that the war in Afghanistan is not worth fighting. The war is becoming even more unpopular within the Democratic Party itself, with seven out of ten Democrats saying that the war is not worth the cost. However, support for the war in the Republican Party remains high. According to the same survey, 58 percent of Republicans support the war in Afghanistan.

Will Americans adopt the same attitude towards the war in Afghanistan as was witnessed in 2006 with the Iraq war, when Republicans not only lost the people's confidence but also control of the U.S. Congress, and ultimately the presidency? Will history repeat itself, this time with the war in Afghanistan loosening the Democrats' grip on power?

These questions might sound premature, but they are not impossible to consider. Much depends on the administration's strategy in Afghanistan. It is yet to be seen if President Obama, like his predecessor, will try to defeat terrorism in Afghanistan using just military power, or will use political instruments as well – especially facilitating a clean and effective government in the war-torn country. Will bringing a corruption-free government in Afghanistan be possible, and should Hamid Karzai be declared the winner of last month's elections?

Keeping past experiences in mind, bringing a clean government to Kabul will be a great challenge for the Obama Administration. Signs from Washington suggest that Obama's evolving Afghan strategy could include political elements too – offering dialogue to "correctable Taliban" who are willing to surrender and join the mainstream. Such a strategy of peeling away the so-called "correctable Taliban" could be one effective way of cornering and defeating these militants.

This strategy could have direct implications for Pakistan as well. Islamabad has been pursuing a military campaign against the Taliban on its side of the porous border with Afghanistan. It has yet to be determined how far Pakistan is ready to go for a possible change in United States policy towards Afghanistan and its impact on the region. But for now, public sentiment in America does not appear very positive for President Obama.